By: Coach K (StrictlyBusinessBoxing.com)
(September 14th) When HBO first announced Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin one it was the most highly anticipated middleweight bouts in some time. It is since that date (September 16th, 2017) after the first go around was marred by some suspicious Las Vegas scoring that the pair were set square off a rematch set for May 5th only to be crushed when the younger Alvarez would twice test positive for the banned substance Clenbuterol.
Then with Canelo taking no personal responsibility for the positive test, claiming it was the result of ingesting some “tainted beef” and receiving just a six-month suspension by the Nevada Boxing Commission, the Golden Boy Promotions “golden goose” still allowed to continue to train you now had a guy who averaging a fight once every three months (52 times in 156 months since 2005) found to be taking performance enhancing drugs getting the benefit of a suspect draw and an even more suspect slap on the wrist suspension be rewarded with the most lucrative fight of his career.
Now with the 28-year-old Canelo, 49-1-2, 34Ko’s hungry to avenge the sham draw and attempting recoup his reputation the question is does it make him a more dangerous or vulnerable fighter this time around.
Golovkin having won the first match in the eyes of most ringside, the power punching beast biggest adversary may be father time making the suspension and now one-year period between the bouts a benefit for Canelo.
Turning pro at age 15 the red headed Alvarez winning his first title over a blown-up Matthew Hatton March 5th, 2011. Running his record to 42-0-1 before being outclassed by Floyd Mayweather September 14th, 2013.
Rebounding with a March 8th 2014, tenth round knockout of Alfredo Angulo and a controversial points win over Erislandy Lara later that year and adding a third-round stoppage of an undisciplined James Kirkland the once beaten Canelo closed out 2015 with a twelve round points win over an aging and worn Miguel Cotto.
Feverishly growing in popularity, red headed “phenom” notching a pair of 2016 KO wins blowing out the much smaller and moving up Amir Khan in six and Liam Smith in nine rounds Canelo parlayed his only appearance in 160lb division into a May 6th, 2017 one sided twelve round unanimous decision win over Mexican rival Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. into the now infamous September 16th, 2017 title shot at unbeaten IBF/IBO/WBA and WBC Middleweight Champion Golovkin.
Following the drama and skepticism of the first bout and a second round of prolonged contentious negotiations in which Canelo was treated as if he were the champion or “A” side there is still a long list of questions left to be answered in this rematch.
This Saturday night Alvarez forced to face his own demons brought on by the first fight scoring debacle and follow up “Clenelo” PED scandal it is the eight-year younger Golden Boy Promotions cash cow who has some very over bearing questions to be answered. It is in those questions I see the “naturally” bigger, stronger Golovkin’s mental toughness that will level Canelo’s substantial youth advantage.
It was Golovkin the boxer who clearly won in the first fight. Just because you don’t bounce on your toes from post to post doesn’t mean you’re not boxing. This time around I see Canelo attempting to start strong again but this time “GGG” the one of the two who really wants to fight “GGG” starts faster
taking control of the center of the ring and come forward cutting off the ring breaking the slough footed Mexican’s timing with a constant accurate jab and unrelenting pressure forcing Canelo into a first fight resembling “boxing” retreat taking away Canelo’s first fight early edge incrementally building the pressure methodically depleting Canelos first fight late surge.
Understanding what’s on the line Canelo will certainly make some adjustments and undoubtedly have his moments but this time “GGG’s” vast Olympic experience will showcase the better technician making subtle but more influential adjustments going to the young Mexicans body more in this fight tiring and breaking him down to a possible Matthew Macklin moment.
In the end once again faced with Golovkin’s granite chin march backed by his usual volume attack the “you are only as old as you feel” Champion wins the war of wills out throwing and landing Canelo.
Very wary of Golovkin’s power when successful the stop and punch Canelo once again will not follow up and even worse at times will answer with wild open swings ultimately allowing him to be countered and forced to the ropes for a battle of contrasting “best punches” in which GGG’s much heavier right hand wins out over Canelo’s fatiguing left hook ending this middleweight title “beef” with GGG still the reigning undefeated middleweight champ.
The 36-year-old Golovkin, 36-0-1, 34Ko’s a highly decorated amateur compiling a record of 345-5 winning numerous world amateur titles including a Silver Medal at the 2004 Olympic Games in Athens, Greece turning pro at age 24 in 2006 running off nineteen straight wins, sixteen inside the distance claimed the World Boxing Association World Middleweight Title December 16th, 2010 stopping Nilson Julio Tapia in three rounds. Adding title defense KO wins over Kassim Ouma, Lajuan Simon and Makoto Fuchigami “GGG” arrived on U.S. soil six years ago making his HBO cable television “drama show” debut running his KO streak to eleven stopping Grzegorz Proksa in five.
Always a shining an ambassador for the sport Golovkin continuing his heavy-handed ways recording KO wins over Gabriel Rosado, Nobuhiro Ishida, Matthew Macklin, Curtis Stevens, Osumanu Adama, Daniel Geale, Marco Antonio Rubio, Martin Murray, Willie Monroe Jr, David Lemieux, Dominic Wade’ and Kell Brook it would be almost nine years until the Kazakhstani assassin would be forced to go the full tilt scoring a twelve round unanimous decision over Brooklyn, New York “Miracle Man” Danny Jacobs March 18th, 2017 leading us into to the now nefarious September 16th, 2017 Canelo scoring debacle draw.
Reflecting his customary professional, efficient in the ring success, Golovkin always a man of high social class with consistent public persona outside would slip a bit after an Oscar De La Hoya fake news rant stating Golovkin demanded no national anthems to be played before the fight revealing a new mean nasty spirited dark side of GGG ahead of this Saturday’s Golden Boy Promotion soap-opera / WWE styled “drama show”.
At the final fight presser WBA and WBC World Middleweight Champion Gennady Golovkin was quoted telling BBC Sport, “If you are a real guy, a real fan, you want clean sport”.
In reference to the doping incident Canelo was quick to quip “People suggest in their own heads but I am preparing like always. You will see the same Canelo, same muscles, same size, same speed, same everything.”
Expecting both fighters to be at their best in the end no matter who wins this fight, no fighter or fight, should ever become bigger than the sport itself. In the case of the PED use when you consider the safety of the sport and all involved. You MUST realize as attractive as this rematch is, it should not be happening. Just like the NFL’s mis-handling of the National Anthem black eye, boxing having the chance to make a solid against illegal drug use stand they blew it again. GGG should looking to other big names and Canelo should still be suspended living with the shadow HE created.
Prediction: Noting the facts above I see the fight following familiar path and the new meaner GGG taking it out of the judges’ hands in the second half.